A pseudonymous trader known as AlphaRaccoon has come under scrutiny after reportedly earning a staggering $1.15 million in less than 24 hours through bets on the Google 2025 Year in Search rankings on the prediction market platform Polymarket. The trader successfully wagered on niche questions, including whether the singer d4vd would top the list and if Pope Leo XIV would appear in the top five. Notably, these bets were placed just before Google publicly released the data for the first time.
Blockchain records indicate that AlphaRaccoon’s recent trades are part of a broader pattern. In November 2025, the trader netted over $150,000 by accurately predicting the launch date of Google’s Gemini 3.0 AI model. This previous bet, however, did not demonstrate the same level of asymmetry as the recent wagers related to Google’s Year in Search. Across 23 Google-related markets, this account achieved 22 correct outcomes, including a nearly 20-fold gain on the prediction that d4vd would be the most searched individual of the year.
Allegations of Insider Trading Surface
Critics like Polymarket trader and blockchain engineer Haeju Jeong have voiced strong suspicions about AlphaRaccoon’s remarkable success. On social media platform X, Jeong stated, “This isn’t a lucky streak. He’s a Google insider milking Polymarket for quick money.” The platform’s official account also highlighted the trader’s impressive profits, asking, “Who is AlphaRaccoon?”
Despite the intense scrutiny, no concrete evidence directly links AlphaRaccoon to Google. The user has not publicly commented on the allegations, and it remains unclear whether any investigations are underway by either Google or Polymarket. Nonetheless, the transactions can be traced on the publicly accessible blockchain ledger, which, while pseudonymous, offers transparency regarding the trades.
Implications for Prediction Markets
The emergence of AlphaRaccoon’s trades raises critical questions about the nature of prediction markets. While some view the situation as evidence of cheating, others argue that such outcomes demonstrate the true potential of these platforms. Prediction markets, once outlawed due to concerns over gambling and manipulation, aim to provide better information verification by aggregating bets on specific claims.
In 2006, the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act restricted many online betting platforms, treating them as unregulated futures, which led to a clampdown on payment processors. Despite these challenges, Polymarket gained recognition for circumventing restrictions through cryptocurrency transactions. However, the platform faced regulatory scrutiny in 2022 from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and was forced to halt services in the U.S.
Advocates for unrestricted prediction markets argue that they enhance information accuracy, as insider bets can lead to sharper prices that reflect unknown information. Nonetheless, critics contend that such platforms may simply serve as vehicles for gambling, where insiders hold an unfair advantage, potentially enabling manipulation in public events or corporate situations.
The debate over insider trading in prediction markets is not new. Similar accusations have arisen concerning bets on events like the Nobel Peace Prize winner and recent suspicious trades in the crypto market preceding an acquisition announcement by crypto exchange Coinbase. These incidents contribute to ongoing discussions about whether cryptocurrency and prediction markets are fostering democratized finance or merely facilitating insider profiteering.
As the situation unfolds, the future of platforms like Polymarket remains uncertain, especially regarding regulatory scrutiny and the ethical implications of insider trading in prediction markets.
