BREAKING: A new Yale youth poll reveals Vice President JD Vance as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, while California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the Democratic side just days ahead of the crucial 2028 presidential election cycle. The poll, conducted between October 29 and November 11, surveyed 3,426 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 1.7 points.
In a hypothetical matchup, 51% of voters indicated they would choose Vance, positioning him 43 points ahead of Donald Trump Jr., who garnered 8%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trails significantly with only 6%. Despite DeSantis’s low polling numbers, 79% of respondents believe he could win against a Democrat in the general election.
The poll underscores a generational divide: only 20% of voters aged 18-22 and 28% of those aged 23-29 support Trump for a potential third term, while older voters remain steadfast behind him. If Trump entered the race, he would lead with 50% support, followed by Vance at 19%.
On the Democratic side, Newsom is the clear favorite with 25% support, while former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trail with 18%, 16%, and 14%, respectively. The poll analysis highlights that younger Democrats favor Ocasio-Cortez, who leads among those under 35 with 32% support, whereas Newsom is viewed favorably by male (32%), White (27%), and Hispanic (27%) Democrats.
The urgency of these findings cannot be overstated. With the political landscape shifting rapidly, 85% of Democrats view Newsom as their strongest contender against a generic Republican, emphasizing the significance of this poll in shaping the upcoming election strategies.
The survey was conducted by Verasight and highlights a marked divergence in candidate support between demographic groups within the Democratic Party. As candidates begin to solidify their bases, these insights could prove pivotal in the lead-up to the 2028 election.
As voters assess their options, all eyes will be on the candidates as they prepare for the debates and primaries ahead. The political climate is heating up, and both parties will need to address the emerging preferences of their constituencies. Stay tuned for further updates as this story develops.
