URGENT UPDATE: Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to hit a new all-time high in 2026, breaking its historical four-year cycle, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan in a recent analysis. This significant prediction comes as pro-crypto regulations and institutional investments gain momentum, potentially reshaping the cryptocurrency landscape.
In his Monday note, Hougan emphasized that the factors traditionally driving Bitcoin’s four-year cycle are weakening. He highlighted a wave of new capital flowing into the market, particularly through institutional crypto Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which he believes will support Bitcoin’s price surge in 2026. This comes after Bank of America recently allowed its financial advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, opening the door to a potential influx of funds from the bank’s approximately $3.5 trillion in client assets.
Historically, Bitcoin has operated on a four-year cycle, characterized by three years of growth followed by a significant downturn. However, Hougan argues that the dynamics are shifting. “The forces that previously drove four-year cycles — the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts — are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” he stated.
The approval of Bitcoin ETFs has sparked a significant institutional interest, with firms like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo expected to allocate more resources to cryptocurrencies. According to Grayscale’s research arm, Bitcoin is poised to set new records in early 2026 as the market transitions into what they describe as the “institutional era.” They cite an increasing macro demand for alternative stores of value amid rising public debt and greater regulatory clarity as key supporting factors.
Additionally, the current interest rate environment is favorable for crypto. The US Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025 and is expected to continue easing, contrasting sharply with the rate hikes that pressured digital assets in previous years, specifically in 2018 and 2022.
On the volatility front, Bitwise noted that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations have decreased significantly over the past decade. In fact, Bitcoin has been less volatile than stocks like Nvidia throughout 2025. The firm anticipates that this trend will persist into 2026, with Bitcoin’s correlation to equities expected to diminish as regulatory advancements and institutional adoption push prices higher, even as stock valuations face scrutiny.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, experiencing a slight decline of nearly 1% at the time of this report. As the cryptocurrency market prepares for potential seismic shifts, investors are urged to keep a close eye on upcoming developments.
In summary, the anticipated rise of Bitcoin in 2026 signals a transformative period for the cryptocurrency market, driven by institutional investments and favorable economic conditions. Stay tuned for further updates as this story develops.
