Myanmar’s military government has announced a staggered general election set to begin on December 28, 2023 and conclude in late January 2024. This electoral process is intended to restore stability amid ongoing civil conflict following the military coup in 2021. However, the elections have been widely criticized as a “sham” due to the severe humanitarian crisis and political repression in the country.
The military junta has faced widespread condemnation for its actions since taking power. Over the past two years, it has engaged in indiscriminate bombings, imprisoned tens of thousands, and left millions displaced. According to aid agencies, more than 11 million people are experiencing food insecurity as the military struggles to regain territory lost to opposition forces.
At a recent summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Malaysia, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres questioned the viability of free and fair elections in Myanmar. He stated, “Is there anyone who believes that there will be free and fair elections in Myanmar? … the conditions for free and fair elections are not there.” His remarks highlight the challenges posed by the ongoing civil war and the military’s track record on human rights.
To influence the electoral outcome, the junta has introduced new legislation prohibiting what it describes as “interference” in the electoral process. Human Rights Watch reported that nearly 100 people were detained under this law in November, with that number more than doubling in recent weeks. Many detainees faced charges for merely expressing dissent on social media, while others were imprisoned for questioning an election that military leader Min Aung Hlaing has acknowledged will not occur in many contested areas, which comprise nearly half of the country.
Most Western governments have declined to send observers to the elections, denouncing the process as illegitimate. Critics argue that the military aims to establish a parliament dominated by its proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which was soundly defeated by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in the last election in 2020. This time, the NLD has been banned, and Suu Kyi, along with other party leaders, remains imprisoned.
Analysts note that the military has recently gained momentum in its campaign against opposition forces. Morgan Michaels, a Southeast Asia security analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, explains that the military’s renewed strategy includes a conscription campaign and enhanced use of drones, resulting in regained control over strategic areas. In contrast, opposition groups remain fragmented and have suffered from strategic missteps.
China, while not supportive of the military regime, views it as a stabilizing force amid chaos that threatens its economic interests in Myanmar, including crucial infrastructure projects. According to Yun Sun of the Stimson Center, China perceives the military as a “necessary evil,” given its significant geopolitical interests in the region. The ongoing civil war threatens initiatives like the China-Myanmar economic corridor, which is essential for connecting China to South Asia and Southeast Asia.
The junta has also pressured ethnic armed organizations to relinquish territory captured from the regime, further weakening the opposition. Michaels emphasizes that without adequate weapons and ammunition, opposition forces lack the necessary firepower to mount significant offensives.
Amid these developments, fatigue among the populace is becoming evident. After nearly five years of conflict, many young individuals who initially took up arms against the military are now seeking better opportunities abroad. Analyst Min Zaw Oo observes a trend of fighters relocating to neighboring countries like Thailand, highlighting a growing disillusionment with the armed struggle.
Yet, some remain committed to opposing the military. Rebel commander Ko Ta Mar, who transitioned from a medical career to armed resistance, expresses frustration with the lack of unity among opposition forces. He believes that the current moment is existential for Myanmar, stating, “If you see the crisis in the country as a disease, the election is like injecting steroids into a patient. The pain can be eased temporarily, but it will be worse in the long term.”
While many Burmese citizens share Ko Ta Mar’s sentiments, others are desperate for any semblance of stability. Longtime analyst David Mathieson notes that the shadow National Unity Government, a political successor to the ousted government, is losing credibility. Many citizens express skepticism about the potential for a bright democratic future, yet some view the military as having a plan for stability, albeit a low bar.
The upcoming elections are scheduled for January, and the military hopes they will achieve dual goals: restoring order domestically and alleviating its international diplomatic isolation. As events unfold, the global community remains watchful of the implications for Myanmar’s future.
