President Donald Trump is set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 18, 2024, at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. This meeting comes at a pivotal time as the United States seeks to advance a ceasefire in Gaza, which is showing signs of stagnation. The discussions aim to leverage the strong rapport between Trump and Netanyahu to expedite the peace process amid accusations that Israel has not been proactive enough in negotiations.
The ceasefire, which has largely held since its initiation, is now facing challenges as both Israel and Hamas accuse one another of violations. Tensions have also risen among the U.S., Israel, and various Arab states regarding the best path forward. The first phase of the ceasefire began in October 2023, shortly after the two-year anniversary of the severe Hamas-led attack on Israel, which resulted in approximately 1,200 casualties. Currently, all but one of the 251 hostages taken during that attack have been accounted for.
Challenges Ahead in Gaza Peace Efforts
The next stage of negotiations presents a complex array of issues. Trump’s ambitious 20-point plan, approved by the U.N. Security Council, aims to dismantle Hamas’ governance in Gaza. This second phase would entail the reconstruction of Gaza under international oversight, with a committee composed of Palestinian technocrats managing daily operations. The plan also envisions normalized relations between Israel and Arab nations, potentially paving the way for Palestinian independence.
According to Mona Yacoubian, director and senior adviser of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Netanyahu’s stance may complicate these negotiations. “This is going to be a really tall order for President Trump to get Netanyahu to agree,” she noted. The implications of this meeting extend beyond Gaza, as discussions may also touch on Iran, particularly its nuclear capabilities, which Trump claims were “completely and fully obliterated” following U.S. military strikes in June 2023.
Both leaders face significant hurdles in reaching consensus. Netanyahu’s previous meetings with Trump, including his first visit during Trump’s second term, have not fully aligned their strategies for the region. Their last in-person encounter was in October 2023, marking the beginning of the ceasefire’s initial phase.
Implications of the International Stabilization Force
The complexity of the situation is compounded by the need for an International Stabilization Force. This proposed multinational body is intended to oversee security in Gaza, but its mandate remains contentious. A Western diplomat indicated that there exists a “huge gulf” between U.S.-Israeli expectations for the force’s role and the perspectives of other nations, particularly those in the region.
While Trump and Israeli officials envision a commanding role for the force, potential troop-contributing countries are wary of being perceived as an “occupation force.” Hamas has expressed readiness to discuss “freezing or storing” its weapons but maintains its right to armed resistance as long as Israeli occupation continues. A U.S. official has suggested that financial incentives may be offered for the surrender of arms, echoing previous proposals.
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains dire, with extensive destruction from Israeli bombardments leaving many neighborhoods in ruins. Reconstruction efforts are hindered by ongoing military operations and delays in forming the Palestinian technocratic committee. Regional players, including Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, are advocating for a negotiated settlement that includes disarming Hamas and additional Israeli withdrawals from Gaza.
As discussions unfold, the United Arab Emirates has reportedly agreed to fund reconstruction efforts, with plans for new communities in Gaza. However, the exact nature of these financial commitments remains uncertain as negotiations progress.
In conclusion, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago may serve as a crucial juncture in determining the future of the Gaza ceasefire and broader regional stability. The leaders’ ability to navigate these complex dynamics will be pivotal in shaping the next steps in this protracted conflict.
