The anticipated surge in stablecoin adoption has been significantly overstated, according to a new report from McKinsey Financial Services. While 2025 was projected to be a record year for stablecoins, the actual adoption rate is estimated to be around 1% of previous projections, raising questions about the validity of metrics used to gauge growth in this sector.
The GENIUS Act introduced in 2025 provided much-needed regulatory clarity for dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies. Major corporations like Stripe and Sony launched related products, and notable figures such as President Donald Trump reportedly benefited from the stablecoin market. Trump’s involvement with a USD 1 stablecoin has drawn scrutiny amid serious corruption allegations.
In early 2025, Tom Lee, a veteran on Wall Street, characterized stablecoins as having a “ChatGPT moment,” a metaphor reflecting their perceived potential in transforming finance. This view echoed a report from Citi, which suggested a boom in stablecoin activity. However, the latest findings from McKinsey challenge these optimistic narratives.
According to the report, while raw blockchain data indicated robust activity, only a fraction—approximately 1% of the estimated $35 trillion in total transaction volume—pertains to real-world payments. This translates to stablecoin adoption being merely $390 billion for 2025, accounting for about 0.02% of global payment activity.
The report reveals that business-to-business (B2B) payments and international remittances drive most stablecoin transactions. It highlights that activities like crypto exchanges transferring funds, automated smart contract functions, and trading on decentralized exchanges should not be counted as payment metrics. Notably, around 60% of the stablecoin activity originates from Asia, particularly Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan.
Misleading metrics are not uncommon in the crypto landscape. Increased on-chain activity related to decentralized finance (DeFi) applications has often been used to promote inflated adoption claims. The excitement around transaction speeds has also obscured the core value propositions of such technologies.
Despite the inflated adoption metrics, the McKinsey report does highlight genuine growth signs. The anticipated $390 billion in stablecoin payments for 2025 represents more than double the volume seen in 2024. Moreover, the total supply of stablecoins has surged from less than $30 billion in 2020 to over $300 billion today.
Nonetheless, there are concerns regarding the implications of this growth. A report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis identified that stablecoins are increasingly associated with illicit crypto transfers. Specific instances, such as the Maduro regime’s use of Tether’s USDT stablecoin and adoption by the Central Bank of Iran, underscore the dual-edged nature of stablecoin policies in the United States.
The rise of stablecoins has also created a divide between ideologically-driven cypherpunks and fintech startups focused on adoption metrics. Initially heralded as a means to enhance crypto adoption, the situation has evolved to where stablecoin issuers are now creating their own blockchain infrastructures. This development introduces an additional layer of centralized control within the ecosystem.
While industry leaders like Tom Lee view the issuance of stablecoins and other tokens based on real-world assets, such as tokenized stocks, as positive for decentralized networks like Ethereum, significant uncertainties remain. Questions linger regarding how much value will accrue to these open protocols and whether stablecoin issuers could effectively sideline these networks altogether.
As the landscape continues to shift, it is crucial for stakeholders to reassess the metrics and narratives surrounding stablecoin adoption, ensuring a clear and accurate understanding of this evolving market.
