Keir Starmer’s government is facing significant challenges as the UK grapples with a struggling economy, low public approval ratings, and rising discontent over immigration policies. Less than 500 days after the Labour Party’s decisive victory in the 2024 elections, the current administration is under pressure, with the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, preparing to unveil a tax-raising package aimed at addressing a £20 billion gap in public finances.
The economic outlook remains bleak. Inflation persists above the government’s target, and unemployment rates are climbing. This year, interest payments on national debt are projected to consume over 8 percent of total public spending. Critics caution that the UK might be trapped in a cycle of high taxes, stagnant growth, and escalating debt. These economic woes have provided fertile ground for political opponents, particularly the right-wing Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, which consistently polls ahead of Labour.
Reform UK’s appeal has grown by blending nostalgic nationalism and anti-immigration sentiment with traditionally left-leaning economic policies. The party’s rising popularity signals a disillusionment with mainstream politics, and its performance in the upcoming midterm elections in May—across the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd in Wales, and various local councils—is anticipated to be strong. Many Labour members fear that these elections may serve as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership, potentially leading to an electoral setback.
The Labour Party’s struggles can be traced back to the economic difficulties they inherited. The UK has lagged in economic growth, with its gross domestic product (GDP) growing at half the rate of the United States since the financial crash of 2008. While the US experienced a GDP per capita increase of over 70 percent, the UK saw a decline of 2 percent in the same period. Years of austerity measures imposed by previous Conservative governments have left public services in a precarious state, exacerbated by the impacts of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Starmer’s initial electoral success can be attributed not to widespread support for Labour but rather to a collapse in Conservative support and a shift toward smaller parties. With less than 34 percent of the national vote, his government holds the record for the lowest share of the ballot for any majority government since universal suffrage was established.
Political stability, which many anticipated after Labour’s victory, has quickly dissipated. Starmer’s tenure has been marred by a series of policy blunders, particularly concerning welfare reform, and a spate of high-profile resignations, including those of his chief of staff Sue Gray, deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, and ambassador to the US Peter Mandelson.
As speculation grows around Starmer’s future, Labour MPs are privately discussing potential successors. Notable names include Health Secretary Wes Streeting, popular among party activists, and Shabana Mahmood, who recently introduced measures to deter illegal migration. Another intriguing candidate is Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, who would need to secure a parliamentary seat to enter the leadership contest.
Despite these challenges, Starmer remains committed to his role. A former human-rights lawyer, he has aimed to bring a technocratic approach to governance, focusing on stability after years of political upheaval. Yet, even supporters acknowledge his difficulty in resonating with voters who are frustrated and seeking substantial change.
Starmer’s government has achieved notable successes on the international stage, fostering relationships with leaders such as US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron. His commitment to increasing defense spending has influenced other NATO members, and recent trade agreements aim to alleviate the repercussions of the hard Brexit deal established by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Domestically, Labour has introduced a new industrial strategy and made efforts to nationalize railways while reforming outdated planning regulations. Despite these initiatives, Starmer’s public favorability ratings remain low, with recent polls indicating he is the most unpopular prime minister in nearly half a century.
The persistent economic challenges and the high cost of living are the most significant hurdles facing Starmer and his team. The upcoming financial statement from Chancellor Reeves will be critical in determining whether the government can regain public confidence. Without a significant turnaround, the UK may soon witness a new phase of political upheaval as voters respond to the current circumstances.
