California Governor Gavin Newsom currently leads the race for the Democratic nomination for the 2028 presidential election, following a significant victory with Proposition 50. Recent polls indicate that he holds a six-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris, with a reported 26% to 20% lead in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator. However, another contender has emerged as a potential challenger: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
While Shapiro does not yet possess the national recognition of Newsom, his political background and recent successes could position him as a strong candidate. The most notable attention he garnered on the national stage was in summer 2024, when Harris considered him for her running mate. Drawing comparisons to former President Barack Obama, who was relatively unknown in 2005 during the lead-up to the 2008 election, it is evident that a lack of early recognition does not preclude a successful campaign.
As Shapiro contemplates a presidential bid, he faces several challenges. His centrist stance may alienate the increasingly progressive base of the Democratic Party. His support for Israel, coupled with his Jewish identity, could further complicate his appeal among the party’s far-left constituents.
Despite these hurdles, Shapiro has demonstrated significant strengths, particularly in Pennsylvania, a vital swing state. He has won three consecutive elections as both attorney general and governor, underscoring his capability to secure crucial votes. Polling data suggests he retains broad support; in a hypothetical 2028 matchup against Vice President J.D. Vance, Shapiro would secure a 10-point lead, according to a Quinnipiac poll, which indicates 58% support among independent voters.
The significance of Pennsylvania in the electoral landscape cannot be overstated. The state has often served as a bellwether for presidential elections, and Shapiro’s ability to appeal to moderate voters could be critical for the Democratic Party. As noted by Binyamin Applebaum in the New York Times, Democrats must identify candidates capable of winning in battleground states like Pennsylvania, rather than relying on candidates who dominate in deep blue areas.
Shapiro’s electoral success in 2020, where he outperformed both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, further enhances his credentials. In addition to holding onto Biden’s 2020 voter base, he attracted support from Trump voters in key suburban districts, a feat praised by political analysts in Pennsylvania. His approval rating stands at 60% among state voters, including 66% of independents, as per the Quinnipiac poll.
Since taking office, Shapiro has achieved a series of impactful initiatives. His tenure has seen a $20 billion investment from Amazon, over $1 billion in funding for farmers, and $500 million for business development. He has also secured financing for hiring more than 1,500 police officers, historic funding for K-12 education, and major permitting reforms—all while implementing tax cuts.
Despite these successes, Shapiro’s pragmatic approach may pose a dual challenge. While it could foster appeal in a general election, it may not resonate with the party’s primary electorate, which is increasingly influenced by far-left ideologies. His softer stance on former President Trump during his governorship contrasts with the expectations of many Democratic voters who prioritize strong anti-Trump sentiments.
Furthermore, Shapiro’s Jewish identity and support for Israel present potential vulnerabilities in the primary race. Incidents like the attack on his residence last April, where an assailant targeted him due to his pro-Israel stance, highlight the risks he faces in navigating these complex political dynamics.
Ultimately, if the Democratic Party aims to secure a victory in the 2028 election, Shapiro could be a formidable candidate capable of uniting moderate voters. Nevertheless, he must first navigate the challenges posed by the party’s leftward shift to emerge as a viable contender in the primaries. As the political landscape evolves, Shapiro’s centrist values and proven track record in Pennsylvania may offer a compelling narrative for Democratic voters seeking a candidate who can win critical swing states.
