Support for former President Donald Trump has significantly declined among non-college-educated voters, a demographic that played a crucial role in his 2024 presidential campaign. New polling data indicates that Trump’s backing has dropped by a staggering 23 points since last year, leaving him “underwater by nine points” among this key voter bloc. This trend has prompted concerns among Republican commentators, including Joe Scarborough, who described the situation as a “five-alarm fire” during a recent segment on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe.”
Scarborough, a former Republican congressman from Florida, highlighted that non-college-educated voters had previously formed a solid base for Trump, contributing significantly to his re-election efforts. However, current polling, as reported by CNN, suggests that dissatisfaction with Trump’s policies has led to a stark reversal in support.
Jennifer Palmieri, who served as White House communications director during the Obama administration, echoed Scarborough’s concerns. She noted that Trump’s appeal among non-college voters, which had strengthened over the years, may now be unraveling. “If they see that there is underneath their belief that Donald Trump and Republicans were on their side, and that the evidence is very much to the contrary, this does not go unnoticed among working-class voters,” Palmieri stated.
Trump’s challenges are compounded by the broader political landscape. While Democrats, including Joe Biden, have also lost ground with non-college voters—Biden’s support dropped by 10% from 2020 to 2024—Trump’s decline represents a critical shift. Scarborough linked this erosion of support to recent comments made by Trump regarding economic issues, suggesting that many of these voters are struggling to afford basic necessities such as rent, healthcare, and education.
“When you start seeing non-college voter support for Donald Trump and Republicans cratering, that’s the five-alarm fire,” Scarborough emphasized, urging Republican leaders to take heed of these alarming trends.
The current polling data signals a potential crisis for Trump and the Republican Party as they approach the next election cycle. If this trend continues, the implications could extend beyond just Trump’s re-election bid, potentially reshaping the party’s overall strategy towards working-class voters.
As the political landscape shifts, both Trump and the Republican Party will need to reassess their approaches to appeal to this vital demographic, which has historically been a cornerstone of their electoral success.
