The Venezuelan government is reportedly developing guerrilla-style strategies in response to potential military actions from the United States. According to a report by Reuters, the regime plans to deploy small military units across over 280 locations throughout the country. These units would engage in acts of sabotage and other guerrilla tactics designed to counter U.S. air or ground attacks.
Officials have not publicly acknowledged a strategy termed “anarchization.” This approach aims to create chaos in Caracas, making governance increasingly difficult. As tensions rise, the Trump administration is pressing authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro to relinquish power to prevent a forced removal. In a recent telephone conversation, President Donald Trump emphasized the need for Maduro to step down, along with several key regime members, including Diosdado Cabello, Jorge Rodríguez, Delcy Rodríguez, and Vladimir Padrino López.
In a significant escalation, the Trump administration officially designated the Cartel de los Soles—an organization it claims is led by Maduro and his inner circle—as a terrorist group. This designation is likely to facilitate military strikes within Venezuela. Following Trump’s call with Maduro, the White House denied reports suggesting a potential meeting between the two leaders, which were initially circulated by The New York Times.
On social media, Trump stated that Venezuelan airspace should be regarded as “closed.” In a post on Truth Social, he warned, “To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.”
As diplomatic efforts continue, The Washington Post noted that Turkey has emerged as a possible refuge for Maduro if an exit strategy is negotiated. The relationship between Caracas and Ankara has strengthened in recent years, marked by cabinet-level exchanges and robust trade ties. Notably, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan maintains a good rapport with Trump, leading some in Washington to contemplate this option.
A source familiar with the administration’s discussions indicated that a deal could potentially include guarantees, such as assurances that Maduro would not face extradition to the United States. However, reports indicate that Maduro is hesitant to accept any deal that would require him to depart from power, fearing a lack of lasting amnesty. According to The Wall Street Journal, Maduro and his close associates believe that the Trump administration is merely bluffing regarding its military intentions. They assert that the only feasible way to remove him from power would be through the deployment of troops to Venezuela, which they consider unlikely.
Phil Gunson, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, articulated this sentiment, stating, “The calculation for Maduro is that he will always be safer here than anywhere else.” As the situation develops, the potential for increased conflict remains a pressing concern for the region and the international community.
