URGENT UPDATE: The Big Island of Hawaii is bracing for a potentially dry rainy season despite recent rainfall, as predictions from local forecasters suggest optimism is fading. Authorities report that much of the island remains under moderate drought, with Hilo International Airport receiving only 8.4 inches of rain in October—just 80% of the monthly average.
Tina Stall, hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Honolulu, reveals that weak La Niña conditions are expected to persist through winter and into spring, though the anticipated rainfall may not be enough to alleviate drought conditions significantly. “Most of the island is under moderate drought or worse, with the exception of the Kona district,” Stall stated last week.
Despite predictions for above-normal rainfall across Hawaii through early spring, East Hawaii faces diminished chances for relief. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that while statewide forecasts suggest improved rainfall, the outlook for the Big Island remains uncertain.
Historically, the 2025 dry season is shaping up to be the third-driest in three decades, trailing only 2010 and 2007. From May to September, Hilo International Airport recorded a mere 17.92 inches of rain, just 41% of its usual dry season total, while Honokaa reported only 7.45 inches, just 25% of its normal.
As of late October, critical fire weather conditions have emerged, prompting several Red Flag Warning days across the Big Island. Fire Chief Kazuo Todd notes that firefighters have ramped up staffing during these periods, incurring additional costs in overtime to ensure readiness. “When you go into a Red Flag period, we staff up, and we have more people working,” Todd explained.
The ongoing Hamakua fire, which has consumed approximately 500 acres, remains a concern. “We’ve been fighting that for about two months now,” Todd added, highlighting the complexity of battling an underground fire that presents unique challenges.
While East Hawaii grapples with drought, the Kona and Kohala coastlines are experiencing above-average rainfall, particularly in the Kona coffee belt. However, the situation shifted dramatically in October, as rainfall totals plummeted. Only one rain gauge in the region measured above-average precipitation last month, raising concerns about the overall efficacy of the wet season.
Stall emphasizes the importance of upcoming rainfall forecasts, stating, “With them calling for above-normal rainfall, we can only hope that comes true.” The implications are significant: if predictions hold true, Hawaii could see a substantial improvement in drought conditions by the end of the wet season in April.
As the situation develops, residents and officials are urged to stay vigilant, particularly in high-risk fire areas. With the landscape’s resilience at stake, the call for increased rainfall has never been more critical.
For ongoing updates, stay tuned as this story develops.
