Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to initiate a significant defense partnership with Israel, with potential agreements estimated between $8 billion and $10 billion. This anticipated deal emerges in the wake of the 2023-2025 Middle East war, during which Israeli air-defense systems demonstrated their effectiveness, and the recent May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, which underscored India’s vulnerabilities in drone and missile defenses.
The negotiations are set to take place as Modi visits Jerusalem, where India aims to enhance its air-defense capabilities. The proposed agreements include procurement of all four crucial elements of Israel’s multilayered missile defense system. These systems consist of the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) Arrow missile-defense system, Rafael’s David’s Sling and Iron Dome, as well as the Iron Beam system developed by Rafael and Elbit. Collectively, these systems are designed to protect against long-range ballistic missiles, medium-range rockets, and short-range threats.
In addition to air-defense systems, India is expected to explore opportunities in offensive and defensive drone warfare. Israeli companies are competing rigorously, showcasing a range of solutions. A notable agreement is anticipated for the Elbit’s Hermes 900 drone, a prominent player in the market. Furthermore, offensive capabilities are likely to expand through agreements for Rafael’s SPICE 1000 guidance kits, Elbit’s Rampage air-to-ground missiles, and the IAI’s supersonic Air LORA missiles.
Modi’s strategy appears to focus on enhancing India’s long-range strike capabilities, allowing for missile launches from distances beyond enemy air defenses. This approach mirrors tactics employed by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in their operations against Iran in June 2025.
India has maintained a robust defense relationship with Israel, reportedly purchasing 34% of Israeli arms between 2020 and 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Over the same period, total arms sales to India have been valued at approximately $20.5 billion.
Analysis of historical data reveals a dramatic increase in defense sales between the two nations, especially from 2012 to 2017, when sales reached $3.4 billion following the sale of the Barak anti-aircraft system for naval vessels. Although sales cooled slightly from 2017 to 2023 due to India’s “Made in India” policy, Israeli investments in Indian defense industries have begun to rise again. As a result, a mix of purchases and long-term partnerships in defense production are anticipated to invigorate this sector.
Looking ahead, the spike in defense deals is projected to surpass previous records by 2026. Additionally, various joint ventures in cyber, artificial intelligence, and even quantum technology are on the horizon as part of Modi’s visit. The evolving landscape of defense collaboration reflects an urgent need to adapt to modern warfare challenges while bolstering national security.
