Putin Faces Increased Pressure as Ukraine War Takes Toll

Vladimir Putin’s grip on power is showing signs of instability as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and economic challenges escalate. Recent events highlight this shift, including the recent arrest of a teenage band, Naoko, in St. Petersburg, Russia, after they performed a song that criticized the Russian leader. The band’s lead singer, Diana Loginova, now faces charges of “discrediting” the military, signaling a crackdown on dissent.

In the weeks following Putin’s 73rd birthday on October 7, Russia’s Federal Security Service initiated a criminal investigation against 22 prominent exiles, accusing them of plotting to seize power. This group, led by businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, is part of the Anti-War Committee, which recently gained recognition as a dialogue partner with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Khodorkovsky argues that hard-liners within the Kremlin fear this group gaining legitimacy as a potential democratic force in a post-Putin era.

The United States is responding to these developments with increased sanctions targeting Russia’s largest oil companies. The aim is to pressure Putin into negotiating a ceasefire and peace agreement with Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated, “Russia is going to feel the pain immediately,” noting that the Russian economy is in a dire state, with inflation exceeding 20% and economic growth stagnating.

Despite a planned 54% increase in federal propaganda spending for the upcoming year, Putin’s reliance on strict controls over information appears to be growing. Following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram were banned, and government interference has extended to YouTube, WhatsApp, and Telegram. The Kremlin aims to push citizens towards a state-controlled messaging service called Max, blocking approximately 417,000 websites in the process.

According to a recent report from OVD.Info, a Russian human rights organization, there are currently at least 1,700 political prisoners in Russia, a number that exceeds those in the Soviet Union during the mid-1980s. This alarming trend is exacerbated by a monthly average of 60 new politically motivated criminal cases being opened against Russians, indicating a systemic crackdown on opposition.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has resulted in significant military losses for Russia. As of October 2023, estimates put Russian casualties at 343,820 killed and wounded, a figure that highlights the heavy toll of the conflict. Comparatively, this represents approximately five times the number of casualties the Soviet Union experienced during the decade-long war in Afghanistan.

Putin’s strategy has shifted to recruiting soldiers from marginalized communities to shield major urban centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg from the impacts of war. Data from Mediazona reveals that only 1% of known war dead come from Moscow, despite the city representing 9% of the nation’s population. This disconnect between the war’s realities and public perception is further illustrated by a Levada Center poll, which found that half of Moscow’s respondents were unaware of anyone fighting in the conflict.

While censorship curtails widespread understanding of the war, the economic strain is palpable. With the prime interest rate at 16.5%, many businesses are closing, and economic growth is projected to remain below 1% for the year. The middle class, accustomed to a different standard of living, is increasingly aware of the lost opportunities in comparison to their Eastern European neighbors, whose economies have thrived since the collapse of communism.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine remarked on Putin’s insecurities, asserting that the Russian leader fears his own society more than any external threats. As the situation continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how long Putin can maintain his authority amid mounting pressure from both the international community and domestic unrest.